* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRWIN EP102017 07/30/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 51 47 38 34 30 26 23 18 15 DIS
V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 51 47 38 34 30 26 23 18 15 DIS
V (KT) LGEM 55 56 55 52 48 40 32 26 23 20 18 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 7 9 5 6 8 11 12 16 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -1 1 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 56 39 32 25 14 35 279 250 244 226 220 N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.1 25.2 24.5 23.9 23.4 22.4 21.9 21.6 21.4 21.3 21.2 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 125 116 109 103 97 87 81 76 73 71 70 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 57 55 51 45 41 37 32 26 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 10 10 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 58 43 29 17 -8 -26 -4 -1 -6 -2 -10 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 5 8 10 5 -4 17 10 9 4 8 -4 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -2 -5 0 3 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1543 1496 1459 1433 1420 1439 1397 1407 1413 1429 1407 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.6 19.6 20.8 21.9 24.1 25.8 26.9 27.6 28.1 28.5 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 125.1 125.7 126.2 126.9 127.5 129.0 130.7 132.0 132.7 133.3 133.9 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 12 10 6 4 3 3 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -18.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -11. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -8. -17. -21. -25. -29. -32. -37. -40. -44.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.5 125.1
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/30/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.13 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 3.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 335.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.49 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 15.8% 13.9% 11.1% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.0% 5.8% 4.9% 3.8% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/30/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##