* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EMILY AL062017 07/31/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 51 54 55 55 53 52 50 49 47
V (KT) LAND 40 38 34 31 37 40 42 41 39 38 36 35 34
V (KT) LGEM 40 43 35 31 35 37 39 41 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 27 12 16 22 16 16 23 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -1 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 344 316 279 297 304 268 262 255 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.2 28.8 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 164 155 149 154 151 145 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 143 136 131 135 131 123 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 7 8 7 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 46 47 46 43 43 45 47 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -5 2 9 -1 -13 -10 -31 -44 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -12 19 10 -19 -4 25 42 21 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 6 2 3 6 10 -6 5 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 59 -6 -81 -4 93 330 303 312 458 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.3 28.8 30.5 32.2 33.7 35.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 83.3 82.5 81.6 80.6 79.7 77.6 75.5 73.2 70.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 62 45 41 2 20 53 29 15 8 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 13. 12. 10. 9. 7.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.5 83.3
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062017 EMILY 07/31/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.41 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 268.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.67 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 81.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062017 EMILY 07/31/17 12 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062017 EMILY 07/31/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 34 31 37 40 42 41 39 38 36 35 34
18HR AGO 40 39 35 32 38 41 43 42 40 39 37 36 35
12HR AGO 40 37 36 33 39 42 44 43 41 40 38 37 36
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 39 41 40 38 37 35 34 33
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT