* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRWIN EP102017 07/31/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 36 33 29 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 45 41 36 33 29 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 33 29 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 9 12 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 -2 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 355 352 343 315 298 279 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 23.7 23.1 22.6 22.1 21.8 21.5 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 100 94 89 84 80 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 57 54 53 51 48 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -7 -16 -20 -29 -30 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 4 7 15 9 -10 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1411 1392 1388 1365 1311 1273 1282 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.5 23.7 24.8 25.8 27.3 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 127.0 127.6 128.1 128.8 129.4 130.6 131.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -16. -22. -25. -28. -30. -32. -34. -36. -40.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.3 127.0
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 353.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.47 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 12 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING