* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRWIN EP102017 07/31/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 30 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 40 35 30 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 40 36 31 28 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 12 9 8 10 13 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 352 353 322 306 293 268 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 23.3 22.8 22.3 22.0 21.7 21.5 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 96 91 86 82 78 76 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 54 52 49 47 44 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -18 -21 -31 -41 -14 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 12 15 7 -10 -4 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1404 1400 1388 1345 1310 1296 1327 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.3 24.4 25.3 26.2 27.6 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 127.5 128.0 128.6 129.3 129.9 131.2 132.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -3. -4. -4. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7.
PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. -27. -29. -31. -32. -35. -39.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.2 127.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.06 0.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 1.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 1.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 331.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.49 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.8% 3.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##