* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FRANKLIN AL072017 08/08/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 63 66 73 76 69 62 63 64 66 68
V (KT) LAND 50 46 38 33 39 45 48 37 30 28 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 50 47 38 33 37 46 52 46 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 10 5 14 16 20 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 0 0 -2 -1 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 267 270 319 5 14 352 348 12 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.2 29.9 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 165 166 168 171 172 168 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 160 155 157 156 157 163 164 157 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 12 8 10 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 65 68 70 74 77 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 18 18 20 19 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 28 23 11 16 14 19 43 48 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 72 39 26 28 41 33 59 56 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 4 0 -5 -2 0 -8 -5 -12 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 98 -34 -159 -47 65 230 160 -46 -252 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.6 20.8 20.8 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 86.6 87.8 89.0 90.1 91.1 93.1 95.3 97.6 99.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 10 10 10 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 85 85 37 49 40 36 57 31 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 20.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -10. -19. -19. -20. -21. -21.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 23. 26. 19. 12. 13. 14. 16. 18.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.8 86.6
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.82 5.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 59.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.38 2.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.46 2.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 4.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.77 2.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.71 3.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 0.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 215.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 46.2% 31.6% 21.7% 11.9% 30.0% 35.2% 21.5%
Logistic: 999.0% 52.5% 39.4% 27.5% 15.1% 32.2% 24.0% 21.9%
Bayesian: 5.9% 16.4% 11.4% 5.6% 999.0% 5.4% 1.5% 15.9%
Consensus: 999.0% 38.4% 27.5% 18.3% 999.0% 22.5% 20.2% 19.8%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 46 38 33 39 45 48 37 30 28 27 27 27
18HR AGO 50 49 41 36 42 48 51 40 33 31 30 30 30
12HR AGO 50 47 46 41 47 53 56 45 38 36 35 35 35
6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 46 52 55 44 37 35 34 34 34
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT