* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FRANKLIN AL072017 08/08/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 37 40 43 42 48 53 59 64 69 74
V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 40 43 46 34 29 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 36 37 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 8 5 9 12 11 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 0 2 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 356 22 7 6 17 359 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 170 171 171 172 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 160 163 162 161 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 8 9 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 67 68 71 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 19 20 17 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 14 14 16 15 13 39 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 26 50 46 28 32 56 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -7 -6 -15 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) -71 45 161 229 247 74 -138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 89.8 90.9 92.0 93.1 94.1 96.2 98.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 49 38 32 35 47 46 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 21. 25. 28. 32. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7.
PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 2. 5. 8. 7. 13. 18. 24. 29. 34. 39.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.1 89.8
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 3.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.77 2.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.66 2.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.87 1.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 17.3% 12.8% 7.8% 6.7% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.8% 18.1% 10.2% 3.4% 1.4% 14.6% 13.5% 18.5%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Consensus: 2.4% 12.1% 7.8% 3.8% 2.7% 9.3% 4.5% 6.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 37 40 43 46 34 29 27 27 27 27 27
18HR AGO 35 34 34 37 40 43 31 26 24 24 24 24 24
12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 40 28 23 21 21 21 21 21
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT