* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FRANKLIN AL072017 08/09/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 68 67 66 64 63 63 62 61 62 65
V (KT) LAND 65 68 61 48 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 65 68 69 49 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 18 16 19 20 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 6 356 10 31 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 171 171 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 163 163 164 163 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 73 73 75 78 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 17 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 29 39 56 69 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 49 87 62 67 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -3 -3 -7 -14 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 174 95 -12 -118 -225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.6 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.5 96.6 97.6 98.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 49 54 40 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. -23. -23.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.1 94.4
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.46 1.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.25 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 3.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.63 1.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.45 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 56.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 34.1% 19.2% 14.3% 9.3% 14.7% 14.2% 999.0%
Logistic: 18.4% 26.9% 16.8% 9.8% 8.8% 15.2% 10.4% 999.0%
Bayesian: 7.7% 49.9% 40.9% 16.8% 999.0% 5.6% 2.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 13.6% 37.0% 25.6% 13.6% 999.0% 11.8% 8.9% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 61 48 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27
18HR AGO 65 64 57 44 35 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23
12HR AGO 65 62 61 48 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27
6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 46 38 35 34 34 34 34 34 34
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT