* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FRANKLIN AL072017 08/10/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 79 79 76 74 71 70 69 67 66 67 70
V (KT) LAND 75 68 52 41 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 75 79 54 42 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 360 14 28 47 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 173 173 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 165 166 168 172 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 71 74 77 79 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 14 11 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 34 48 65 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 68 52 65 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -7 -10 -14 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 114 -13 -142 -292 -182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.1 19.9 19.7 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.8 98.1 99.6 101.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 58 7 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -23. -24. -25. -25.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -5.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.3 95.5
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/10/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 8.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.47 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.34 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 4.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 1.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.59 1.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.45 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 17.2% 35.9% 20.9% 12.8% 9.2% 14.3% 13.7% 999.0%
Logistic: 28.9% 40.2% 29.7% 20.4% 19.4% 18.5% 16.6% 999.0%
Bayesian: 19.6% 66.7% 58.4% 32.9% 999.0% 6.7% 7.8% 999.0%
Consensus: 21.9% 47.6% 36.3% 22.0% 999.0% 13.2% 12.7% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/10/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/10/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 68 52 41 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27
18HR AGO 75 74 58 47 41 35 34 33 33 33 33 33 33
12HR AGO 75 72 71 60 54 48 47 46 46 46 46 46 46
6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 59 53 52 51 51 51 51 51 51
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT