* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOVA EP122017 08/12/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 44 46 48 45 40 32 25 19 18 18
V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 44 46 48 45 40 32 25 19 18 18
V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 40 39 36 33 29 26 23 22 21
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 14 18 17 18 18 21 22 20 17 17 10 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 0 -1 0 -3 0 -2 -3 0 -2 -2
SHEAR DIR 69 57 64 73 81 74 77 76 77 71 98 132 153
SST (C) 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.9
POT. INT. (KT) 161 155 151 145 139 133 131 132 128 123 120 116 113
200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
700-500 MB RH 75 71 70 67 64 62 60 62 56 52 47 46 49
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 14 14 14 13 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 62 61 70 84 79 93 85 75 71 48 45 43 49
200 MB DIV 61 45 33 46 49 16 26 -8 -21 -20 5 -6 1
700-850 TADV -6 -10 -4 0 -1 -4 -4 -5 2 0 3 0 0
LAND (KM) 393 404 430 517 606 797 952 1146 1325 1496 1698 1911 2130
LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.4 19.3 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.0 18.9
LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.6 112.0 113.3 114.4 116.7 119.1 121.5 123.9 126.2 128.7 131.1 133.5
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 17 11 13 12 10 5 2 1 4 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 20. 19.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -13. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 11. 13. 10. 5. -3. -10. -16. -17. -17.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.1 109.2
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122017 JOVA 08/12/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 2.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.19 1.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 0.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.5
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 123.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 17.2% 11.4% 8.8% 7.6% 11.0% 10.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.8% 6.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 3.1% 2.8% 0.4%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.8% 8.1% 4.4% 3.1% 2.6% 4.7% 4.4% 0.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122017 JOVA 08/12/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##