* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOVA EP122017 08/12/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 34 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 34 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 31 28 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 19 20 18 16 19 17 19 16 16 14 11 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 1 -1 1 0 -2 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 53 67 74 70 67 80 62 61 48 52 25 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.4 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 146 143 139 127 123 119 113 111 108 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 74 72 69 68 66 62 61 54 51 47 43 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 16 16 15 13 12 10 8 8 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 60 72 77 78 75 60 50 53 44 46 44 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 22 30 34 17 22 3 5 -6 -21 -15 -19 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -8 -2 -1 -1 -6 0 -6 0 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 343 370 431 534 603 762 946 1093 1269 1479 1719 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 110.8 112.0 113.1 114.3 115.6 118.1 120.4 122.7 125.0 127.5 130.2 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 9 7 6 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -14. -21. -26. -28. -30. -30.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.9 110.8
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122017 JOVA 08/12/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.02 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.06 0.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 0.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 123.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 5.1% 3.1% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.7% 1.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122017 JOVA 08/12/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##