* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EIGHT AL082017 08/13/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 48 50 53 61 66 67 63 58
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 48 50 53 61 66 67 63 58
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 44 47 49 54 59 61 58 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 8 1 9 13 14 20 18 16 7 20 20 20 32
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -3 4 5 -2 1 5
SHEAR DIR 156 211 18 27 18 27 12 354 279 268 281 260 250
SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.3 24.2 22.0 18.5
POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 159 155 148 138 139 142 135 106 94 83
ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 144 142 135 127 118 122 132 127 100 89 79
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.9 -55.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 13 13 11 11 9 9 7 6 4 1
700-500 MB RH 50 48 49 49 49 55 61 62 52 43 38 38 39
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 8 11 12 9 9
850 MB ENV VOR -43 -57 -55 -45 -43 -41 -37 -12 -15 5 2 -2 -31
200 MB DIV -22 -10 0 7 5 30 22 25 41 37 47 53 62
700-850 TADV -4 -4 0 1 0 0 2 19 5 49 16 17 0
LAND (KM) 555 648 755 862 800 613 497 543 667 754 764 1093 1667
LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.6 26.6 27.8 28.8 30.7 32.6 34.8 37.1 38.9 40.4 42.5 45.5
LONG(DEG W) 69.7 70.3 71.0 71.4 71.8 72.1 71.7 70.0 65.4 57.8 49.3 40.6 31.2
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 10 9 11 17 28 33 34 36 38
HEAT CONTENT 38 34 33 31 26 30 34 9 35 32 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 24. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 2. -1. -4. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -6. -2. 0. 1. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 18. 20. 23. 31. 36. 37. 33. 28.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.7 69.7
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.78 2.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.71 2.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.74 1.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 242.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 18.7% 14.5% 9.1% 7.8% 12.8% 15.5% 19.4%
Logistic: 10.1% 41.5% 29.2% 16.7% 4.6% 24.6% 25.7% 29.0%
Bayesian: 1.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 1.4% 2.5%
Consensus: 6.2% 20.6% 14.8% 8.6% 4.2% 12.8% 14.2% 17.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 42 48 50 53 61 66 67 63 58
18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 38 44 46 49 57 62 63 59 54
12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 38 40 43 51 56 57 53 48
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 30 33 41 46 47 43 38
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT