* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GERT AL082017 08/14/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 54 57 62 63 73 74 68 54 49 44
V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 54 57 62 63 73 74 68 54 49 44
V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 52 55 58 60 66 69 60 48 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 7 15 16 14 14 14 8 17 37 49 59 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 -2 2 9 0 11 0 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 17 357 14 15 359 356 330 240 241 244 236 N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.9 28.1 27.1 25.0 16.4 17.2 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 150 147 141 137 142 130 111 77 79 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 128 125 120 119 126 117 101 74 75 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.4 -1.1 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 3 1 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 47 47 50 52 54 57 53 46 44 41 42 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 15 13 19 21 21 18 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -31 -39 -32 -30 -41 -28 -34 14 58 102 88 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 26 25 14 17 8 28 58 73 92 104 104 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -1 2 -13 1 19 12 22 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 829 739 653 589 533 549 669 612 645 504 954 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.4 30.3 31.2 32.1 34.0 36.4 38.7 41.0 43.6 46.5 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 71.8 71.9 72.0 71.8 71.7 70.2 66.7 61.9 55.7 48.4 40.3 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 15 20 24 28 31 31 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 30 28 29 34 39 14 25 28 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -5. -15. -19. -23.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 8. 10. 9. 4. 3. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 17. 22. 23. 33. 34. 28. 14. 9. 4.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 28.5 71.8
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/14/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.63 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.50 1.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.54 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 318.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.63 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 18.3% 14.2% 9.3% 8.1% 13.3% 15.8% 13.6%
Logistic: 7.4% 15.3% 9.0% 4.4% 3.9% 9.3% 16.2% 5.5%
Bayesian: 6.3% 5.2% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 0.0%
Consensus: 7.2% 12.9% 8.6% 4.7% 4.1% 7.6% 11.1% 6.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/14/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/14/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 49 54 57 62 63 73 74 68 54 49 44
18HR AGO 40 39 43 48 51 56 57 67 68 62 48 43 38
12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 44 49 50 60 61 55 41 36 31
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 38 39 49 50 44 30 25 20
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT