* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GERT AL082017 08/14/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 53 58 66 71 68 62 47 42 37
V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 53 58 66 71 68 62 47 42 37
V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 48 50 53 58 65 63 51 42 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 13 15 12 15 15 11 11 24 42 52 73 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 5 9 6 2 -2 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 5 13 14 358 2 322 256 234 254 252 243 N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.1 20.0 15.6 13.8 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 143 140 139 139 132 86 76 73 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 125 122 119 122 126 123 81 72 70 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -54.5 -54.2 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.0 -1.1 -1.2 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 11 10 8 6 4 1 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 49 51 52 52 54 58 51 41 45 45 49 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 14 16 16 19 20 20 19 15 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -38 -35 -31 -43 -50 -12 -6 43 61 55 81 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 23 28 24 3 3 52 33 108 73 88 73 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 2 0 -2 17 -4 22 23 64 76 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 738 664 592 531 475 516 602 606 483 691 1084 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 29.3 30.1 30.8 31.7 32.6 34.8 37.3 39.8 42.5 45.9 50.2 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 72.1 72.2 72.3 72.1 72.0 70.3 66.3 59.7 51.5 44.1 38.2 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 11 17 24 31 32 30 28 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 28 29 32 36 33 7 25 5 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -1. -8. -21. -26. -30.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 7. 5. -1. -1. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 26. 31. 28. 22. 7. 2. -3.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 29.3 72.1
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/14/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 1.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.49 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.51 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 310.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.63 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 14.8% 11.5% 7.5% 6.5% 11.9% 14.2% 10.6%
Logistic: 3.1% 7.3% 3.9% 1.5% 0.5% 4.2% 3.3% 0.8%
Bayesian: 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.6% 7.7% 5.3% 3.0% 2.3% 5.4% 5.9% 3.8%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/14/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/14/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 49 53 58 66 71 68 62 47 42 37
18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 49 54 62 67 64 58 43 38 33
12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 43 48 56 61 58 52 37 32 27
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 39 47 52 49 43 28 23 18
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT