* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GERT AL082017 08/14/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 60 62 65 69 70 66 64 50 45 39
V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 60 62 65 69 70 66 64 50 45 39
V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 61 62 63 65 67 60 52 44 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 14 13 17 19 17 11 18 33 43 54 65 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 2 7 4 0 3 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 9 8 359 356 339 333 261 241 254 248 231 N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.3 27.9 27.9 27.3 25.4 16.6 16.8 14.6 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 150 141 137 139 133 115 78 77 73 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 128 121 118 123 122 106 74 73 70 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.8 -53.0 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 -0.3 -1.3 -1.4 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 10 10 7 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 52 57 54 45 44 52 50 48 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 18 18 17 19 19 20 23 20 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -35 -31 -45 -58 -35 -33 2 22 72 95 121 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 26 32 17 -9 16 67 46 64 62 80 81 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 1 0 -4 7 8 -2 0 54 111 81 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 677 607 542 500 478 651 609 623 492 895 1307 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.7 31.5 32.6 33.6 35.9 38.3 41.0 44.0 47.2 50.4 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 72.2 72.2 72.2 71.7 71.2 68.3 63.2 56.1 48.1 40.9 35.1 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 14 20 27 32 31 27 25 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 28 31 35 35 14 17 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 1. -4. -12. -21. -25. -29.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 3. 2. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 19. 20. 16. 14. 0. -5. -11.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.9 72.2
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/14/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.52 1.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.77 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.42 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 381.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.56 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 16.2% 12.5% 8.6% 7.3% 13.1% 14.2% 6.4%
Logistic: 3.6% 7.1% 3.9% 1.7% 0.7% 5.7% 3.9% 0.6%
Bayesian: 4.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.1% 8.3% 5.7% 3.5% 2.7% 6.3% 6.1% 2.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/14/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/14/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 57 60 62 65 69 70 66 64 50 45 39
18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 57 60 64 65 61 59 45 40 34
12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 51 54 58 59 55 53 39 34 28
6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 45 49 50 46 44 30 25 19
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT