* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GERT AL082017 08/15/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 66 68 71 67 60 56 47 42 38 34
V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 66 68 71 67 60 56 47 42 38 34
V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 67 68 71 71 62 51 44 39 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 20 17 16 17 11 19 36 46 51 50 35 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 -1 -1 3 1 9 3 -2 -2 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 7 359 354 353 319 248 259 238 229 233 244 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 28.0 27.6 26.4 16.1 15.2 14.2 11.7 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 140 137 140 137 125 77 74 70 67 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 120 119 124 126 115 73 70 67 64 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.6 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -51.0 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -0.7 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 10 9 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 48 53 55 55 52 41 40 48 56 52 48 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 20 20 23 20 21 25 23 22 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -52 -39 -24 -22 -18 -15 23 111 178 244 247 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -3 6 23 27 2 66 57 71 106 81 65 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 3 10 13 7 6 3 -16 -61 20 73 28 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 545 497 456 511 598 651 587 381 742 1081 1283 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 31.3 32.2 33.1 34.2 35.3 37.7 40.7 44.1 47.5 50.6 53.1 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 72.4 72.1 71.8 70.5 69.3 64.4 57.4 49.9 42.9 38.3 36.1 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 12 15 19 27 32 31 26 18 14 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 34 36 26 8 12 24 15 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -5. -9. -14. -18. -19. -20.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -7. -13. -19. -23. -27. -29.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -3. -2. 2. -2. -4. -4. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 2. -5. -9. -18. -23. -27. -31.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 31.3 72.4
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/15/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.51 1.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.26 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 478.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.47 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.5% 11.9% 9.0% 8.2% 11.6% 7.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.4% 9.5% 6.0% 3.7% 2.7% 2.6% 1.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.2% 8.2% 6.1% 4.3% 3.6% 4.8% 2.7% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/15/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/15/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 66 66 68 71 67 60 56 47 42 38 34
18HR AGO 65 64 65 65 67 70 66 59 55 46 41 37 33
12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 63 66 62 55 51 42 37 33 29
6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 60 56 49 45 36 31 27 23
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT