* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GERT AL082017 08/15/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 69 71 73 71 65 59 49 47 43 39
V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 69 71 73 71 65 59 49 47 43 39
V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 68 70 73 71 59 49 42 38 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 18 16 14 11 17 30 29 38 47 51 33 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 8 7 5 9 -1 0 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 3 2 348 311 265 252 245 233 230 224 221 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.6 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.6 26.9 24.3 18.2 16.7 13.7 11.9 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 145 137 137 140 136 129 107 81 75 67 65 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 123 118 120 125 122 119 100 77 71 64 62 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.9 -51.9 -50.0 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -2.0 -1.6 0.5 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 8 5 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 52 54 56 50 47 38 43 50 51 55 47 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 20 21 22 22 22 20 22 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -39 -29 -24 -17 -4 5 67 116 153 227 233 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 0 30 40 8 19 58 74 103 97 91 26 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 10 16 11 9 11 3 8 -33 43 61 8 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 476 465 486 634 632 634 600 671 1095 1285 1216 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 32.3 33.3 34.3 35.5 36.7 38.9 41.3 44.6 48.3 51.2 52.8 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 72.3 71.5 70.8 68.8 66.9 61.0 53.1 45.0 38.1 35.5 37.0 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 16 20 22 29 33 32 23 11 9 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 35 22 7 13 23 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -15. -19. -20. -22.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -6. -11. -18. -22. -26. -28.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -1. -2. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 6. -0. -6. -16. -18. -22. -26.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 32.3 72.3
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/15/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.55 1.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.54 1.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.25 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 479.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.47 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 14.8% 12.0% 9.0% 8.3% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.1% 8.1% 4.6% 2.2% 0.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Bayesian: 2.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.0% 7.9% 5.7% 3.7% 3.0% 4.2% 0.3% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/15/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/15/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 67 69 71 73 71 65 59 49 47 43 39
18HR AGO 65 64 65 67 69 71 69 63 57 47 45 41 37
12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 65 67 65 59 53 43 41 37 33
6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 59 57 51 45 35 33 29 25
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT