* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GERT AL082017 08/16/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 82 82 79 66 52 40 31 32 21 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 80 82 82 82 79 66 52 40 31 32 21 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 80 82 83 83 80 60 46 38 36 36 37 40 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 15 18 27 32 37 56 71 63 53 29 33 30 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 5 4 10 0 -5 -7 -2 -4 0 0 -3
SHEAR DIR 287 255 244 242 231 239 238 236 228 227 224 235 243
SST (C) 27.5 27.6 26.9 26.9 23.9 16.0 15.8 12.1 10.8 11.8 12.7 14.2 14.2
POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 129 130 104 77 75 69 65 65 68 73 74
ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 118 122 97 73 71 66 63 63 66 70 71
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.7 -52.7 -51.5 -49.2 -49.7 -49.4 -48.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 -0.4 -1.7 -1.1 -0.1 4.2 3.9 3.4 3.2
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 45 40 36 38 41 50 51 51 56 51 43 44 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 23 24 25 24 21 18 19 25 22 19 18
850 MB ENV VOR -1 -3 -4 28 69 137 129 172 181 189 146 111 153
200 MB DIV 32 74 58 75 114 102 104 90 71 50 13 -1 -8
700-850 TADV 12 6 -6 3 -3 56 80 80 38 -23 -28 -39 -4
LAND (KM) 614 640 611 619 567 577 1003 1367 1431 1241 977 529 97
LAT (DEG N) 36.8 37.8 38.8 40.2 41.6 45.1 49.1 52.7 55.2 56.0 55.2 56.3 58.9
LONG(DEG W) 67.1 64.4 61.7 57.8 54.0 46.0 39.3 34.7 32.1 29.1 25.0 17.2 6.5
STM SPEED (KT) 22 24 28 33 33 32 26 19 11 10 17 27 31
HEAT CONTENT 22 22 19 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 21 CX,CY: 16/ 13
T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -3. -11. -19. -27. -34. -40. -44. -46. -48.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -27. -34. -36. -37. -39. -38.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. -1. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -8. -7. -0. -5. -9. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. -1. -14. -28. -40. -49. -48. -59. -71. -75.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 36.8 67.1
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.16 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.61 1.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.07 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.47 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 697.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.26 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 14.1% 11.4% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.8% 5.4% 4.1% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/16/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 82 82 79 66 52 40 31 32 21 DIS DIS
18HR AGO 80 79 79 79 76 63 49 37 28 29 18 DIS DIS
12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 73 60 46 34 25 26 15 DIS DIS
6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 67 54 40 28 19 20 DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT