* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GERT AL082017 08/16/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 84 80 73 59 43 35 31 21 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 85 85 84 80 73 59 43 35 31 21 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 85 86 85 80 70 53 42 36 35 35 37 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 16 25 34 37 46 64 77 60 40 30 33 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 4 10 13 -1 -10 -5 -4 1 1 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 253 239 240 231 232 246 241 235 235 241 239 N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.5 26.9 26.5 22.4 16.6 16.1 13.2 11.0 11.1 12.0 13.2 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 136 129 126 96 78 76 70 66 64 66 68 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 124 118 117 90 75 73 67 64 61 63 65 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -54.2 -53.6 -52.6 -50.8 -50.2 -52.1 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -1.7 -1.5 -0.2 2.2 2.9 2.8 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 39 34 36 42 48 51 46 51 46 46 37 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 24 24 25 20 20 23 20 18 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 1 5 30 80 105 127 135 154 161 153 104 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 76 64 75 109 110 90 87 75 47 30 -7 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 5 -8 0 16 -14 105 67 38 -15 -49 -25 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 600 603 597 494 446 874 1277 1478 1360 1177 866 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 38.2 39.4 40.6 42.3 43.9 47.8 51.6 54.4 55.9 55.9 54.7 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 64.1 60.8 57.4 53.2 49.0 41.1 35.7 32.7 31.0 28.1 23.3 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 27 29 32 35 34 29 21 13 7 11 15 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 16 7 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 26 CX,CY: 21/ 15
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -8. -18. -27. -36. -43. -49. -53. -54. -56.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -10. -18. -26. -34. -39. -39. -39. -43. -44.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 18.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. -3. -4. -0. -5. -8. -9. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -5. -12. -26. -42. -50. -54. -64. -72. -79. -82.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 38.2 64.1
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.55 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 708.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.25 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 27.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/16/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 85 84 80 73 59 43 35 31 21 DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 85 84 83 79 72 58 42 34 30 20 DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 85 82 81 77 70 56 40 32 28 18 DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 68 54 38 30 26 16 DIS DIS DIS
NOW 85 76 70 67 66 52 36 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS
IN 6HR 85 85 76 70 67 59 43 35 31 21 DIS DIS DIS
IN 12HR 85 85 84 75 69 65 49 41 37 27 DIS DIS DIS