* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HARVEY AL092017 08/18/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 41 43 50 55 65 72 74 80 82 85
V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 41 43 50 55 65 72 74 70 59 38
V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 40 44 48 53 60 66 65 60 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 16 16 20 12 9 5 11 14 19 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 1 0 -1 -1 -2 5 8 0 -2 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 13 8 19 22 6 355 333 350 34 9 1 14 348
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.7 30.2 30.1
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 153 152 147 148 150 154 165 170 169
ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 158 157 160 159 153 154 154 156 162 163 156
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 13 13 12 14 12 12 9 9 8 10 9
700-500 MB RH 47 48 46 44 47 52 59 62 71 76 80 77 79
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 13 13 14 11 13 13 11 12 10 10
850 MB ENV VOR 47 54 65 64 62 65 66 69 72 48 42 16 34
200 MB DIV 8 29 41 16 0 -12 6 65 74 49 57 26 51
700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -1 1 -1 3 -3 5 -5 -5 -2 2
LAND (KM) 382 284 284 311 354 227 229 359 279 4 62 -52 -137
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.3 17.1 17.8
LONG(DEG W) 58.3 60.0 61.6 63.4 65.1 69.0 72.9 76.7 80.6 84.0 86.9 88.7 89.5
STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 19 18 18 18 16 12 7 5
HEAT CONTENT 60 56 56 44 36 66 36 77 53 43 62 91 43
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -4. -4. -8. -8. -11. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 15. 20. 30. 37. 39. 45. 47. 50.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 58.3
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.57 1.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.32 0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.12 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.85 1.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 273.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.67 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 24.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 13.4% 9.7% 6.3% 0.0% 10.3% 11.3% 17.7%
Logistic: 1.9% 5.3% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 3.8% 8.1% 33.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 1.6%
Consensus: 2.0% 6.6% 4.1% 2.5% 0.0% 4.7% 6.7% 17.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 39 41 43 50 55 65 72 74 70 59 38
18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 48 53 63 70 72 68 57 36
12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 42 47 57 64 66 62 51 30
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 34 39 49 56 58 54 43 22
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT