* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KENNETH EP132017 08/19/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 49 53 60 66 68 66 64 61 57 52
V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 49 53 60 66 68 66 64 61 57 52
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 47 50 53 53 51 46 41 38 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 4 1 1 5 2 5 4 1 8 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 2 -2 1 1 5 1 3 0 2
SHEAR DIR 16 12 20 12 251 198 167 252 196 257 271 231 231
SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.5 25.8 25.0 24.2 23.6 23.1 22.6
POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 141 137 136 133 129 120 112 104 97 92 86
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 1 1
700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 61 60 57 55 54 51 46 41 39 37
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 23 24 24 25 23 21 20 18 16 15
850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -14 -13 -5 4 27 25 35 48 48 25 14
200 MB DIV 72 73 52 40 17 35 26 17 29 7 -4 -2 14
700-850 TADV -5 -3 -1 0 1 3 5 4 9 11 5 12 9
LAND (KM) 1286 1359 1444 1528 1621 1718 1821 1883 1901 1863 1752 1668 1602
LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.5 18.4 19.3 20.4 21.8 23.4 24.8 26.1
LONG(DEG W) 119.5 121.0 122.4 123.8 125.2 127.5 129.6 131.0 131.9 132.6 133.0 133.4 133.8
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 11 10 8 7 8 8 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 19 15 10 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 15. 18. 25. 31. 33. 31. 29. 26. 22. 17.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.4 119.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 3.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 5.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 2.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 194.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.66 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 21.7% 17.3% 14.6% 12.2% 19.7% 17.5% 10.1%
Logistic: 12.0% 49.9% 36.3% 24.5% 18.0% 28.5% 18.8% 4.4%
Bayesian: 1.0% 7.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 7.9% 26.3% 18.4% 13.2% 10.1% 16.2% 12.1% 4.8%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##