* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HARVEY AL092017 08/19/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 45 53 62 66 71 75 79 81 85
V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 45 53 62 66 71 41 32 36 41
V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 46 53 61 70 41 31 39 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 23 21 13 10 9 1 6 9 12 1 10 12 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 1 0 1 8 3 -1 -2 0 -1 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 2 6 9 342 350 80 360 11 26 14 300 262 276
SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.4 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8
POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 147 149 148 149 161 172 169 168 166 165
ADJ. POT. INT. 161 158 155 155 156 151 151 162 170 159 155 153 153
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -52.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 12 14 14 12 11 11 9 10 8 11 8 11 7
700-500 MB RH 51 52 55 56 61 63 70 75 75 76 77 77 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 10 10 11 11 11 9 9 8 8 7 8
850 MB ENV VOR 69 64 60 62 74 72 54 37 4 18 15 25 35
200 MB DIV -5 0 5 12 29 66 72 77 11 20 14 33 28
700-850 TADV -2 -1 4 1 0 2 9 -4 -3 5 0 3 0
LAND (KM) 321 237 202 230 363 346 164 67 10 -133 -15 44 143
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.6
LONG(DEG W) 67.0 68.9 70.8 72.8 74.9 78.6 81.8 85.1 88.1 90.1 91.1 92.4 93.9
STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 19 20 19 17 17 16 12 8 6 7 8
HEAT CONTENT 59 70 42 37 70 53 37 53 50 0 51 12 32
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -7. -8. -10. -10. -12. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 11. 18. 27. 31. 36. 40. 44. 46. 50.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.8 67.0
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.55 1.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.14 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.84 1.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.18 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 234.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.71 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.5% 11.6% 7.9% 0.0% 12.6% 15.6% 20.6%
Logistic: 4.0% 10.4% 4.9% 2.8% 1.8% 8.4% 17.4% 51.7%
Bayesian: 0.2% 3.3% 2.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.5% 3.2% 13.4%
Consensus: 3.1% 9.7% 6.3% 4.0% 0.6% 7.2% 12.1% 28.6%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 45 53 62 66 71 41 32 36 41
18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 42 50 59 63 68 38 29 33 38
12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 37 45 54 58 63 33 24 28 33
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 37 46 50 55 25 16 20 25
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT