* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KENNETH EP132017 08/19/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 67 71 75 74 73 67 62 55 49 42
V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 67 71 75 74 73 67 62 55 49 42
V (KT) LGEM 50 56 62 66 68 70 67 62 54 47 41 37 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 1 2 6 4 5 3 4 9 19 31
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 -2 -1 0 0 1 2 2 1 5 2
SHEAR DIR 31 32 359 30 344 211 210 200 211 196 213 213 208
SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.5 25.8 24.9 24.1 23.6 23.2 22.7 22.4
POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 137 136 134 128 121 111 103 97 93 88 85
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 63 59 58 55 50 46 43 41 40 38
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 22 22 23 22 22 20 19 17 18 17
850 MB ENV VOR -13 -12 -11 -10 -1 19 22 34 36 37 28 12 -7
200 MB DIV 50 44 42 30 37 18 42 29 3 2 14 26 -1
700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 0 4 5 6 8 6 6 8 5
LAND (KM) 1482 1567 1660 1711 1764 1860 1916 1932 1850 1772 1720 1665 1631
LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.2 18.2 19.2 20.5 22.1 23.5 24.7 26.1 27.5
LONG(DEG W) 122.9 124.2 125.5 126.7 127.8 129.9 131.3 132.3 132.8 133.4 134.0 134.6 135.3
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 9 7 5 3 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 8. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 25. 24. 23. 17. 12. 5. -1. -8.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.9 122.9
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 2.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 7.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 0.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 5.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -1.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.14 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 278.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.56 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 2.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.7 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 22.9% 42.0% 28.3% 22.0% 0.0% 28.2% 20.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 26.2% 54.5% 43.1% 31.4% 22.2% 20.0% 9.7% 0.7%
Bayesian: 3.2% 9.2% 3.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 17.4% 35.2% 24.8% 18.4% 7.6% 16.3% 10.2% 0.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/19/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##