* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KENNETH EP132017 08/20/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 89 90 89 81 75 68 59 53 46 40 32
V (KT) LAND 80 85 89 90 89 81 75 68 59 53 46 40 32
V (KT) LGEM 80 87 90 90 87 77 66 55 46 40 35 30 25
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 8 2 2 2 4 8 8 8 14 20 28 31 26
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 1 1 5 1 1 -2 2 -1 -1 -4
SHEAR DIR 34 76 299 211 201 225 239 183 205 205 211 208 197
SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.3 24.4 23.8 23.5 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.7
POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 134 130 125 115 106 100 97 92 90 86 84
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 61 62 60 60 55 51 46 43 40 37 39 38 35
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 21 22 22 20 21 20 19 19 18 18 16
850 MB ENV VOR -8 -1 11 18 18 25 37 44 33 19 3 -4 -1
200 MB DIV 24 30 37 37 51 50 7 16 5 37 10 17 0
700-850 TADV -3 -1 1 3 3 6 14 8 11 9 17 13 10
LAND (KM) 1851 1895 1945 1977 2013 2033 2004 1915 1818 1774 1770 1695 1683
LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.5 21.0 22.6 24.4 25.9 27.0 27.7 27.9
LONG(DEG W) 127.9 129.0 130.0 130.9 131.7 132.8 133.7 134.4 135.0 135.8 136.6 136.9 136.9
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 7 5 2 1
HEAT CONTENT 4 5 4 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -22. -26. -28. -30. -33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2.
PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 10. 9. 1. -5. -12. -21. -27. -34. -40. -48.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.2 127.9
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 0.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 6.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 0.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 478.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.31 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.2 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 25.6% 26.4% 22.4% 19.6% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 18.7% 15.7% 11.6% 9.4% 4.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 2.3% 2.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 15.5% 14.9% 11.6% 9.8% 7.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##