* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HARVEY AL092017 08/22/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 53 64 77 85 87 85 78
V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 33 37 44 56 67 80 49 35 30 28
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 30 31 34 39 47 57 68 45 33 29 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 2 5 6 6 6 8 8 15 16 12 23 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -2 -4 -1 -5 -1 -4 0 4 -1 2
SHEAR DIR 340 323 224 255 292 224 287 215 222 220 257 243 257
SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.3 30.3 30.7 30.0 29.5 29.8 29.7 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 148 147 147 156 173 173 170 156 165 165 130
ADJ. POT. INT. 150 141 133 130 130 142 166 173 152 127 143 144 108
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -51.9 -52.0 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.5
TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 10 8 12 9 12 6 11 6 7 1
700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 70 67 67 65 65 63 63 65 65 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 13 16 19 25 28 27 24 21
850 MB ENV VOR -10 -7 -2 -3 -2 25 7 27 10 29 14 11 -7
200 MB DIV 18 19 38 31 15 21 0 32 33 37 21 46 34
700-850 TADV 2 2 5 1 0 5 2 11 10 19 11 5 4
LAND (KM) -148 -22 55 98 123 169 356 328 27 -92 -50 -122 -282
LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.0 20.3 20.4 20.6 21.8 23.8 26.5 28.5 28.8 29.0 30.8 32.3
LONG(DEG W) 89.2 90.3 91.0 91.4 91.6 91.7 92.0 93.3 95.7 97.3 96.4 94.4 93.9
STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 6 3 4 8 13 15 12 2 9 12 5
HEAT CONTENT 47 29 37 34 29 31 60 71 30 53 53 9 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 31. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 5. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 17. 21. 19. 14. 10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 28. 39. 52. 60. 62. 60. 53.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.4 89.2
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/22/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.93 3.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 2.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 1.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 82.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 23.2% 15.5% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 21.9% 12.5% 2.7% 0.8% 5.3% 18.7% 55.3%
Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.4%
Consensus: 999.0% 15.3% 9.4% 4.0% 0.3% 1.8% 13.0% 18.9%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/22/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/22/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 30 33 37 44 56 67 80 49 35 30 28
18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 35 42 54 65 78 47 33 28 26
12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 35 47 58 71 40 26 21 19
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 38 49 62 31 17 DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT