* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HARVEY AL092017 08/23/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 43 53 65 70 74 72 72 70
V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 43 53 65 48 34 29 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 50 42 31 28 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 9 9 6 9 12 10 9 20 17 33
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 -3 -2 -6 -2 -6 2 1 0 0 0
SHEAR DIR 262 258 220 203 233 181 205 155 217 199 259 245 261
SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.9 30.1 30.4 29.8 29.1 29.2 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 159 166 171 171 165 153 154 161 158 160 156
ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 142 149 154 160 147 133 131 132 127 130 130
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.9 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 10 12 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10
700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 68 67 65 64 66 62 66 59 58 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 14 16 20 20 22 19 18 18
850 MB ENV VOR -5 -5 10 26 25 24 18 17 2 30 4 38 44
200 MB DIV 30 9 16 19 17 16 32 25 9 -1 10 23 19
700-850 TADV 2 0 0 1 2 4 5 7 6 5 1 0 -2
LAND (KM) 117 173 230 291 357 339 161 57 -84 -198 -229 -212 -154
LAT (DEG N) 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 91.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 3 0 2 4
HEAT CONTENT 29 29 33 43 53 71 73 30 44 0 0 0 31
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 9. 10. 11. 6. 4. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 18. 28. 40. 45. 49. 47. 47. 45.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.8 91.5
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.79 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 2.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.82 1.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 76.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 17.4% 13.3% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.7% 16.8% 9.1% 1.8% 0.5% 16.1% 39.9% 55.1%
Bayesian: 0.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 3.5%
Consensus: 3.3% 12.1% 7.7% 3.3% 0.2% 5.4% 20.1% 19.5%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 34 43 53 65 48 34 29 27 27
18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 41 51 63 46 32 27 25 25
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 35 45 57 40 26 21 19 19
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 37 49 32 18 DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT