* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HARVEY AL092017 08/24/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 64 72 78 86 93 95 87 81 70 61 54 49
V (KT) LAND 55 64 72 78 86 93 63 38 30 28 27 27 28
V (KT) LGEM 55 66 77 86 96 109 77 42 31 28 27 27 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 8 5 8 12 7 7 12 18 20 27 27 30 27
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -5 -3 1 1 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 253 201 210 237 244 203 266 223 237 221 238 221 244
SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 170 167 158 153 156 155 155 155 153 157
ADJ. POT. INT. 162 161 158 151 146 136 129 127 126 126 126 128 134
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -51.2 -50.8 -51.8 -51.3 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 12 9 8 11 6 9 6 9 6 8 6
700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 66 71 70 75 72 69 64 61 62 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 24 28 30 32 26 25 21 20 19 18
850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 30 13 19 29 13 20 -4 22 17 28 0
200 MB DIV 15 30 28 23 33 41 28 51 45 82 26 81 17
700-850 TADV 1 4 6 7 3 16 1 10 0 -4 -1 1 6
LAND (KM) 416 389 304 241 192 83 -77 -139 -134 -119 -145 -71 51
LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.4 25.0 25.6 26.1 27.4 28.4 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.4 27.7
LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.6 94.3 94.8 95.3 96.4 97.6 97.9 97.7 97.6 98.0 97.5 96.5
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 8 5 1 1 1 1 5 6
HEAT CONTENT 65 71 75 86 80 32 44 32 50 53 32 44 31
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 72.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 11. 4. 2. -3. -6. -7. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 23. 31. 38. 40. 32. 26. 15. 6. -1. -6.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.8 93.0
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 24.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.82 8.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 75.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.48 5.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.63 7.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 10.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 5.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 5.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 110.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.4
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 46% is 8.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 6.2 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 9.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 14.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 19.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 69% is 13.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 8.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 46.3% 75.2% 67.8% 64.0% 53.4% 68.9% 45.0% 59.3%
Logistic: 72.5% 87.2% 83.9% 78.7% 53.4% 64.0% 41.4% 20.5%
Bayesian: 56.4% 64.2% 56.6% 23.4% 22.4% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Consensus: 58.4% 75.5% 69.4% 55.4% 43.1% 45.2% 28.9% 26.6%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 64 72 78 86 93 63 38 30 28 27 27 28
18HR AGO 55 54 62 68 76 83 53 28 20 18 17 17 18
12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 65 72 42 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 53 60 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT