* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HARVEY AL092017 08/25/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 86 91 94 94 88 83 75 69 65 63 59
V (KT) LAND 75 81 86 91 94 72 44 33 29 28 27 27 26
V (KT) LGEM 75 82 89 94 96 77 46 33 29 27 27 27 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 11 12 8 7 13 9 17 17 25 24 28 28 26
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 -1 1 1 -2 0 -2 2 -4 -1
SHEAR DIR 213 239 249 216 229 272 221 241 215 232 216 238 243
SST (C) 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.4
POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 165 159 154 154 154 153 154 156 160 167 169
ADJ. POT. INT. 159 151 145 139 132 128 126 124 126 128 132 139 145
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.8 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 9 11 7 9 7 9 6 8 4 6
700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 68 68 73 72 68 64 60 58 53 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 25 27 29 29 24 23 20 20 21 23 20
850 MB ENV VOR 29 21 9 24 30 4 19 -11 19 8 21 -5 5
200 MB DIV 19 25 26 49 50 13 51 47 79 12 65 23 36
700-850 TADV 10 11 2 6 19 3 11 1 -7 -1 -2 0 0
LAND (KM) 307 228 161 121 74 -28 -81 -90 -68 -41 -8 -3 27
LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.5 26.0 26.7 27.3 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.8 29.2
LONG(DEG W) 94.3 95.0 95.6 96.1 96.6 97.1 97.4 97.4 97.2 96.9 96.4 95.6 94.7
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 3 2 0 1 2 3 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 70 83 67 41 30 44 46 46 48 47 54 58 41
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. -1. -2. -7. -8. -8. -6. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 19. 19. 13. 8. -0. -6. -10. -12. -16.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.9 94.3
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.73 4.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.61 4.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 4.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 2.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.38 1.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 82.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.8 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 29.1% 44.2% 33.5% 27.6% 21.4% 21.9% 19.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 23.0% 44.4% 34.8% 19.6% 7.1% 15.5% 12.6% 3.4%
Bayesian: 14.2% 28.0% 17.9% 10.6% 4.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Consensus: 22.1% 38.9% 28.7% 19.3% 11.0% 13.0% 11.0% 1.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 86 91 94 72 44 33 29 28 27 27 26
18HR AGO 75 74 79 84 87 65 37 26 22 21 20 20 19
12HR AGO 75 72 71 76 79 57 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 68 46 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR 75 81 86 77 71 67 39 28 24 23 22 22 21