* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HARVEY AL092017 08/26/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 113 108 101 89 80 73 65 61 60 60 58
V (KT) LAND 115 87 64 48 39 31 28 27 27 28 24 26 26
V (KT) LGEM 115 92 67 49 39 30 28 27 27 31 28 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 16 15 11 11 18 15 22 23 31 27 23 16 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -2 -1 0 -3 -5 -3 -3 -4 -6 -3
SHEAR DIR 219 255 266 233 235 245 211 228 214 233 229 271 266
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0
POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 155 156 156 153 151 156 160 164 166 166
ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 129 127 127 127 126 125 129 132 135 136 136
200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -51.6 -51.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 10 7 9 6 8 5 8 5 9
700-500 MB RH 67 66 70 71 69 64 60 60 58 52 55 53 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 28 25 27 27 24 22 21 21 20 22 23 23 19
850 MB ENV VOR 17 4 5 20 9 -1 41 31 42 11 3 -16 -5
200 MB DIV 56 17 9 29 32 31 69 13 30 16 39 10 21
700-850 TADV 14 13 8 5 5 0 -3 0 -7 1 0 2 5
LAND (KM) 23 -33 -90 -115 -140 -145 -99 -41 -3 5 -10 -61 -80
LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.9
LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.1 97.4 97.6 97.8 98.0 97.8 97.3 96.7 96.3 96.0 95.8 95.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
HEAT CONTENT 16 46 46 52 29 31 31 39 4 11 54 53 47
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -22. -31. -38. -44. -49. -51. -55.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -3. 1. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -12. -12. -13. -18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -7. -14. -26. -35. -42. -50. -54. -55. -55. -57.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 27.8 96.8
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.10 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 59.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 6.4% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0%
Bayesian: 5.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 2.5% 1.6% 0.4% 999.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 87 64 48 39 31 28 27 27 28 24 26 26
18HR AGO 115 114 91 75 66 58 55 54 54 55 51 53 53
12HR AGO 115 112 111 95 86 78 75 74 74 75 71 73 73
6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 96 88 85 84 84 85 81 83 83
NOW 115 106 100 97 96 88 85 84 84 85 81 83 83
IN 6HR 115 87 78 72 69 65 62 61 61 62 58 60 60
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT