* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HARVEY AL092017 08/26/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 60 52 48 47 47 45 46 44 46 47 48 46 44
V (KT) LAND 60 46 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 60 45 37 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 12 18 21 18 18 28 24 30 22 27 15 27 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 213 222 250 248 219 237 219 235 236 253 250 270 277
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 159 159 156 158 157 158 160 159 157 148
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 128 128 128 128 130 128 128 131 130 127 119
200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 8
700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 62 62 55 60 57 57 54 60 58 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 21 19 20 20 18 19 19 20 19 17 14 12
850 MB ENV VOR 12 1 -19 -13 7 30 37 11 -7 -24 -11 -31 -22
200 MB DIV 23 21 13 26 37 56 28 14 33 18 19 23 16
700-850 TADV 2 6 0 -4 1 -9 1 -2 1 0 0 0 -1
LAND (KM) -136 -152 -167 -167 -166 -128 -66 -59 -95 -129 -154 -200 -247
LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.9 30.4 30.9
LONG(DEG W) 97.6 97.6 97.7 97.7 97.8 97.6 96.9 96.8 97.1 97.1 96.8 96.7 96.8
STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 3 2 2
HEAT CONTENT 51 43 44 44 16 50 52 53 51 52 32 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -11. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE -9. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -8. -4. 0. 4. 6.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -15. -20. -22.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -8. -12. -13. -13. -15. -14. -16. -14. -13. -12. -14. -16.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.1 97.6
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -40.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.12 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.47 1.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.70 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.36 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 49.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.89 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.1% 6.6% 5.7% 5.6% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 33.0% 10.4% 3.1% 1.0% 999.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Consensus: 999.0% 6.6% 3.5% 2.3% 999.0% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 46 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
18HR AGO 60 59 50 46 43 41 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 49 47 46 46 46 46 46 46 46
6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT