* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TEN AL102017 08/28/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 36 43 48 49 51 43 28 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 36 43 48 49 51 43 28 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 30 32 33 32 28 24 22 23
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 40 31 25 34 34 42 53 55 51 38 32 35 39
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 2 3 4 5 5 4 -1 4 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 311 301 279 270 267 251 262 249 248 241 248 254 273
SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.2 27.9 26.6 25.4 26.2 23.3 16.7 16.4 17.1
POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 152 157 138 123 112 120 98 75 75 76
ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 125 131 137 122 109 99 105 87 71 71 72
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 2.1 3.2 2.7 2.5
TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 3 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 61 63 67 70 70 67 62 59 51 50 51 47 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 19 25 31 39 38 32 24 19
850 MB ENV VOR -26 -29 -7 6 0 31 35 46 69 84 91 97 73
200 MB DIV 22 39 48 43 28 93 92 92 55 61 62 28 -17
700-850 TADV 12 14 17 25 28 23 33 -17 -31 -25 -18 -19 -1
LAND (KM) 34 61 70 76 56 21 339 441 471 533 371 676 1119
LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.8 31.2 32.1 33.0 35.2 37.2 38.9 40.4 42.0 43.9 45.9 48.0
LONG(DEG W) 81.0 80.8 80.6 79.7 78.8 75.8 71.5 66.7 61.6 56.2 50.5 44.3 37.8
STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 8 12 14 18 20 21 21 23 23 25 24
HEAT CONTENT 24 27 27 22 18 6 15 0 21 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 17. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -3. -14. -25. -35. -43. -49. -56.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 32. 30. 21. 10. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 13. 18. 19. 21. 13. -2. -18. -32.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.3 81.0
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.62 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 90.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 55.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.2% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102017 TEN 08/28/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 35 36 43 48 49 51 43 28 DIS DIS
18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 34 41 46 47 49 41 26 DIS DIS
12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 37 42 43 45 37 22 DIS DIS
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 28 33 34 36 28 DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT