* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HARVEY AL092017 08/30/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 40 42 43 45 50 50 43 36 27 25 22
V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 30
V (KT) LGEM 40 34 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 24 17 18 21 16 21 31 30 26 20 23 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 0 -1 4 -1 1 -3 -4 2 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 227 228 199 205 244 222 230 228 214 231 263 N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.8 30.6 30.3 29.5 28.8 27.6 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.4 24.1 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 159 148 132 120 116 113 109 100 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 157 154 147 133 124 112 101 97 95 92 86 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -54.1 -54.9 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.2 2.0 0.7 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 8 9 6 8 3 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 47 42 40 40 38 42 42 38 37 34 44 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 22 20 24 24 18 12 8 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 28 12 27 22 0 15 13 1 3 -5 -4 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 16 13 34 34 36 24 33 31 30 16 31 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 3 -3 -3 4 6 10 11 1 6 -1 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 53 -20 -98 -166 -233 -346 -515 -652 -678 -619 -435 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 29.3 30.0 30.6 31.3 31.9 33.5 35.3 36.5 37.3 38.3 39.9 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 93.5 93.1 92.7 92.3 92.0 90.5 88.7 86.9 85.1 82.9 80.3 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 11 10 9 9 11 13 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 28 52 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12.
PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -1. -2. -10. -19. -25. -26. -26.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 10. 10. 3. -4. -13. -15. -18.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 29.3 93.5
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.40 1.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.16 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 279.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.66 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 33.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.5% 10.0% 6.4% 5.1% 10.4% 8.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 5.4% 3.8% 2.3% 999.0% 3.6% 2.8% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 35 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 30
18HR AGO 40 39 36 33 32 31 31 31 31 32 33 33 34
12HR AGO 40 37 36 33 32 31 31 31 31 32 33 33 34
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 28 28 28 29 30 30 31
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT