* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FOURTEEN EP142017 08/30/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 41 45 52 53 52 47 44 35 32 28
V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 41 45 52 53 52 45 42 33 30 25
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 38 38 37 31 32 27 23 20
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 12 17 11 4 11 7 2 4 1 5 8 8 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -1 1 3 3 8 5 8
SHEAR DIR 78 92 103 169 76 124 154 74 328 334 333 296 262
SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.3 26.8 24.8 21.8 21.5 22.1
POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 152 150 149 149 150 146 131 110 78 75 81
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -50.8 -51.3 -51.4 -50.1 -50.8 -49.9 -50.1 -49.9 -50.1 -49.9 -49.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 7 5 7 4 5 2 3 1
700-500 MB RH 82 81 79 76 73 68 58 56 51 50 46 42 41
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 19 18 19 20 17 16 12 10 6 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 48 56 75 71 53 101 73 86 37 25 9 16 16
200 MB DIV 112 112 150 120 100 116 22 28 4 0 -19 -21 -10
700-850 TADV -6 -7 1 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 1 0 -3 1 3
LAND (KM) 331 335 314 258 204 78 5 4 8 66 45 94 217
LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.1 22.2 23.1 24.0 25.1 26.1 27.0 27.5 27.6
LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.8 109.1 109.3 109.6 109.9 110.2 111.0 112.2 113.4 114.7 115.9 117.2
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 8 6 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 25 25 23 21 17 14 9 4 7 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 25. 24. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. -3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 3. 1. -5. -7. -11. -10. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 15. 22. 23. 22. 17. 14. 5. 2. -2.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.0 108.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 FOURTEEN 08/30/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 3.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.80 3.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 31.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 25.4% 18.6% 15.5% 0.0% 20.5% 20.0% 11.9%
Logistic: 0.7% 5.3% 2.5% 1.2% 0.3% 13.8% 27.7% 5.6%
Bayesian: 0.4% 12.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 1.4% 2.3% 1.1%
Consensus: 4.0% 14.5% 7.8% 5.8% 0.1% 11.9% 16.6% 6.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 FOURTEEN 08/30/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##