* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRMA AL112017 08/30/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 62 67 76 81 86 92 98 101 106 110
V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 62 67 76 81 86 92 98 101 106 110
V (KT) LGEM 45 50 56 62 67 76 81 83 89 92 97 104 108
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 5 7 2 8 4 6 3 9 5 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 -1 0 1
SHEAR DIR 58 51 55 103 126 123 115 96 84 62 40 34 37
SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.7 28.2 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 126 126 125 124 121 120 123 126 133 140 144
ADJ. POT. INT. 124 121 119 119 118 115 113 113 116 119 127 134 138
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -52.7 -53.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10
700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 62 62 60 58 52 49 48 50 56 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 19 19 21 21 22 24 27 27 30 32
850 MB ENV VOR 56 56 51 63 78 85 93 79 79 96 91 95 96
200 MB DIV 32 39 49 62 71 74 82 12 17 19 8 -9 16
700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 2 5 1 4 1 0 -3 -1 -1 0
LAND (KM) 1422 1531 1639 1743 1848 2053 2101 1984 1822 1649 1442 1298 1193
LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.4 18.0 17.0 16.6 16.9
LONG(DEG W) 30.7 31.7 32.7 33.6 34.6 36.5 38.4 40.5 42.9 45.2 47.4 49.7 51.9
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 7 7 4 5 12 18 19 28 28 58
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 12. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 22. 31. 36. 41. 47. 53. 56. 61. 65.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.3 30.7
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 08/30/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.93 4.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 3.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 1.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.42 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 200.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 31.6% 21.5% 10.7% 0.0% 20.1% 19.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 12.6% 41.2% 26.9% 15.6% 9.9% 23.2% 25.3% 23.3%
Bayesian: 11.4% 40.6% 25.7% 18.4% 1.8% 20.4% 9.1% 1.2%
Consensus: 11.0% 37.8% 24.7% 14.9% 3.9% 21.2% 18.0% 8.2%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 08/30/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 56 62 67 76 81 86 92 98 101 106 110
18HR AGO 45 44 49 55 60 69 74 79 85 91 94 99 103
12HR AGO 45 42 41 47 52 61 66 71 77 83 86 91 95
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 49 54 59 65 71 74 79 83
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT