* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FOURTEEN EP142017 08/30/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 51 53 58 52 51 41 38 29 24
V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 51 53 42 36 36 26 22 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 45 47 48 39 34 34 31 27 22 18
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 14 8 5 10 9 2 2 3 10 8 11 19 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -2 1 1 0 2 0 4 7 6 3
SHEAR DIR 93 85 100 73 97 141 254 346 347 345 302 267 278
SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 26.3 23.0 20.9 21.5 21.1
POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 152 151 151 153 152 142 126 91 70 76 72
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -50.9 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -49.9 -49.7 -49.4 -49.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 1 0
700-500 MB RH 81 78 74 72 72 63 56 53 53 44 44 40 39
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 20 20 18 18 12 13 8 9 6 7
850 MB ENV VOR 60 72 72 60 78 88 75 58 36 17 9 -4 -4
200 MB DIV 109 149 131 119 129 71 24 3 -9 6 -10 -7 -21
700-850 TADV -7 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 4 -5 0 5 8
LAND (KM) 320 298 226 172 118 6 -22 -45 39 6 67 198 366
LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.9 24.0 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.1 28.6 28.6
LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.0 109.2 109.4 109.6 109.9 110.6 111.5 112.7 114.1 115.6 117.3 119.3
STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 24 23 21 17 16 13 15 7 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 21. 20. 18. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 1. 1. -6. -6. -11. -9. -13. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 23. 17. 16. 6. 3. -6. -11.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.8 108.7
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 FOURTEEN 08/30/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 4.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.85 4.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.7
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 44.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.5% 28.7% 21.9% 18.9% 15.3% 25.3% 28.6% 12.5%
Logistic: 3.3% 12.4% 7.1% 3.0% 0.9% 30.2% 35.5% 2.5%
Bayesian: 5.3% 32.1% 8.5% 2.2% 0.6% 4.8% 2.3% 0.5%
Consensus: 8.4% 24.4% 12.5% 8.0% 5.6% 20.1% 22.1% 5.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 FOURTEEN 08/30/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##