* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRMA AL112017 08/31/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 84 87 89 90 94 94 97 99 99 100 100
V (KT) LAND 75 81 84 87 89 90 94 94 97 99 99 100 100
V (KT) LGEM 75 82 86 87 86 85 87 90 94 96 98 100 101
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 2 4 1 2 3 3 2 9 8 12 11 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 2 4 2 0 4 4 1 0 1 0 3
SHEAR DIR 60 24 171 244 326 82 349 325 357 4 343 351 353
SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.7 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 126 125 123 121 121 125 131 136 141 147 152
ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 118 116 115 113 114 119 124 129 134 141 147
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10
700-500 MB RH 62 64 59 59 61 58 55 52 54 53 54 57 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 24 24 23 26 26 29 32 34 35 36
850 MB ENV VOR 60 76 81 80 85 87 83 88 94 99 99 97 87
200 MB DIV 44 63 44 53 65 55 15 18 16 10 -9 25 45
700-850 TADV 0 3 6 11 8 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 -4
LAND (KM) 1713 1812 1911 2009 2107 2060 1905 1705 1514 1366 1277 1094 887
LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.2 17.8 17.2 16.8 16.7 16.3 15.8
LONG(DEG W) 33.4 34.3 35.2 36.1 37.0 39.1 41.4 43.9 46.3 48.6 50.6 52.6 54.6
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 1 1 3 14 26 39 26 37 49 36
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 19. 19. 22. 24. 24. 25. 25.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.7 33.4
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 08/31/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 9.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 30.1 to 2.9 1.00 4.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.02 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.31 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 3.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 1.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.13 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.40 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 385.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.56 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 17.4% 28.8% 22.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 15.2% 25.1% 14.1% 6.9% 5.6% 12.5% 5.4% 2.6%
Bayesian: 39.4% 48.8% 35.3% 10.5% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 24.0% 34.3% 24.0% 11.3% 2.4% 4.6% 1.8% 0.9%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 08/31/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 84 87 89 90 94 94 97 99 99 100 100
18HR AGO 75 74 77 80 82 83 87 87 90 92 92 93 93
12HR AGO 75 72 71 74 76 77 81 81 84 86 86 87 87
6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 68 72 72 75 77 77 78 78
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR 75 81 84 75 69 65 69 69 72 74 74 75 75