* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LIDIA EP142017 09/01/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 49 46 38 32 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 50 50 41 37 38 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 50 49 40 36 37 31 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 8 7 11 10 7 9 8 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 -1 0 3 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 206 209 249 273 279 227 223 176 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.8 27.1 26.2 23.5 20.8 21.0 20.4 18.9 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 142 135 126 97 69 72 66 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.0 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 -49.7 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 3 4 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 62 60 57 58 60 55 56 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 22 21 20 16 14 10 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 29 10 14 -9 8 -6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 65 64 35 20 3 12 27 2 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 3 0 -11 -8 -12 -5 -3 -1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) -50 7 -29 -44 47 95 208 276 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.0 26.9 27.6 28.2 29.4 30.8 32.1 33.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.3 113.0 113.9 114.8 116.6 118.6 120.9 123.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 0. -5. -8. -11. -14. -13. -11. -12. -15.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -2. -4. -4. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -10. -14. -19. -17. -16. -16. -15. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -4. -12. -18. -29. -34. -35. -36. -38. -40.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.1 111.6
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 09/01/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 3.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 0.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 162.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.70 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.3 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 16.8% 13.1% 9.8% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 09/01/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##