* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LIDIA EP142017 09/03/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 20 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 254 245 224 197 188 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 20.7 21.0 20.8 20.4 19.7 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 68 71 69 65 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -49.8 -49.7 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 55 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -19 -24 -13 -4 -3 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 3 10 18 16 -1 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -11 -3 0 2 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 44 91 143 210 276 320 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.9 30.5 31.0 31.4 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.8 117.7 118.7 119.7 121.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. -9. -7. -4. -0. -1. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 4. -3. -12. -20. -24. -25. -25.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -22. -27. -34. -40. -45. -49. -52. -56.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.3 115.9
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 09/03/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.11 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 61.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.01 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 133.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 09/03/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##