* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRMA AL112017 09/04/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 105 107 109 109 112 112 113 113 113 111 112
V (KT) LAND 100 102 105 107 109 109 112 112 113 113 113 111 112
V (KT) LGEM 100 101 103 105 107 111 112 112 112 108 106 107 108
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 11 10 12 11 12 11 15 16 14 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 5 4 3 7 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 1 1
SHEAR DIR 24 10 41 49 25 346 315 298 303 301 289 292 265
SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 147 150 152 154 151 153 153 153 151 156 163
ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 141 145 147 150 147 150 148 145 142 144 151
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -50.8 -50.4 -50.3 -49.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4
TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 12 11 13 13 13
700-500 MB RH 55 56 58 56 58 62 65 66 65 64 64 65 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 30 32 33 32 37 38 40 41 44 44 47
850 MB ENV VOR 76 78 79 77 81 78 72 66 69 56 62 69 97
200 MB DIV 47 37 57 60 48 80 63 70 36 3 36 45 46
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 5 8 14 3 8 3
LAND (KM) 1347 1242 1133 1033 936 788 661 379 142 213 198 278 261
LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.8 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.5 21.5 22.4 23.2
LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.5 52.5 53.6 54.7 57.1 59.5 62.1 65.0 67.6 70.0 72.4 74.7
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 13 12 11 12
HEAT CONTENT 28 42 51 46 44 56 65 61 65 83 81 74 57
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -5. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 12.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.3 50.4
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/04/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.86 2.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.31 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.11 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 578.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.37 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 15.4% 12.6% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.2% 5.9% 3.6% 2.5% 1.5% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4%
Bayesian: 2.4% 3.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.1% 8.2% 6.1% 3.8% 0.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/04/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/04/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 105 107 109 109 112 112 113 113 113 111 112
18HR AGO 100 99 102 104 106 106 109 109 110 110 110 108 109
12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 100 100 103 103 104 104 104 102 103
6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 92 95 95 96 96 96 94 95
NOW 100 91 85 82 81 81 84 84 85 85 85 83 84
IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 82 85 85 86 86 86 84 85
IN 12HR 100 102 105 96 90 86 89 89 90 90 90 88 89