* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRMA AL112017 09/05/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 155 156 151 145 137 131 126 123 118 114 109 109 113
V (KT) LAND 155 156 151 145 137 131 126 123 118 114 109 109 113
V (KT) LGEM 155 157 152 145 140 132 130 130 131 129 128 128 118
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 12 13 8 7 9 6 8 6 4 6 10 13 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 3 3 0 1 0 0 -3 3 4 3
SHEAR DIR 351 344 312 297 301 294 315 307 322 308 289 249 264
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 30.0 29.9 30.0
POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 158 158 160 160 160 163 164 170 168 169
ADJ. POT. INT. 157 156 155 155 155 156 155 152 154 153 156 153 152
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.5 -50.2 -49.7 -49.9 -49.5 -49.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.5
TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 11
700-500 MB RH 55 57 55 53 55 54 55 55 56 59 61 64 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 34 31 33 34 34 36 37 38 40 43 44 47 50
850 MB ENV VOR 83 79 68 62 67 66 61 61 68 97 104 132 161
200 MB DIV 22 57 -3 -2 6 -6 8 23 50 50 37 54 71
700-850 TADV -9 -6 -5 -1 0 1 7 0 7 4 11 17 17
LAND (KM) 741 718 582 433 285 63 99 111 128 86 52 56 127
LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.1 19.0 20.0 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.7 23.5 24.4
LONG(DEG W) 57.8 59.0 60.3 61.6 63.0 65.7 68.6 71.3 73.9 76.3 78.4 80.3 82.1
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 56 62 60 56 72 62 77 57 60 51 53 51 51
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -29. -44. -56. -67. -74. -78. -84.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -8. -9. -7. -4. 1. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
PERSISTENCE 5. 3. -2. -6. -8. -7. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. -4. -10. -18. -24. -29. -32. -37. -41. -46. -46. -42.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 155. LAT, LON: 16.7 57.8
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/05/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.75 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 61.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.39 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 155.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 900.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.06 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 34.5% 17.7% 15.0% 7.5% 3.9% 4.4% 5.4% 1.0%
Bayesian: 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 13.9% 5.9% 5.0% 2.5% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 0.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/05/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/05/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 155 156 151 145 137 131 126 123 118 114 109 109 113
18HR AGO 155 154 149 143 135 129 124 121 116 112 107 107 111
12HR AGO 155 152 151 145 137 131 126 123 118 114 109 109 113
6HR AGO 155 149 146 145 137 131 126 123 118 114 109 109 113
NOW 155 146 140 137 136 130 125 122 117 113 108 108 112
IN 6HR 155 156 147 141 138 135 130 127 122 118 113 113 117
IN 12HR 155 156 151 142 136 132 127 124 119 115 110 110 114