* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOSE AL122017 09/05/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 57 62 70 72 77 76 74 76 75
V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 57 62 70 72 77 76 74 76 75
V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 56 64 72 79 83 83 80 74 69
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 7 5 11 8 10 12 19 16 22 28
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 0 -2 -3 -2 1 4 2 10 1 3
SHEAR DIR 320 294 298 300 271 270 268 260 255 269 280 328 14
SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 148 147 149 152 155 159 157 152 152 154
ADJ. POT. INT. 153 152 151 150 148 151 154 155 157 151 144 143 143
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -53.7 -54.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 11
700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 71 69 69 66 64 62 60 58 55 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 16 19 20 22 23 22 25 24
850 MB ENV VOR 12 15 12 15 13 6 13 16 27 29 26 12 -1
200 MB DIV 31 33 47 31 35 39 43 67 76 47 62 45 17
700-850 TADV -7 -3 -2 0 3 0 -4 0 3 2 14 6 7
LAND (KM) 1535 1459 1392 1314 1243 1115 1028 907 782 754 596 473 461
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.3 16.4 17.6 19.1 20.6 22.1
LONG(DEG W) 40.0 41.2 42.4 43.8 45.2 48.0 51.1 54.0 56.6 58.6 60.1 61.9 63.8
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 14 12 11 11 11 12
HEAT CONTENT 25 24 24 33 39 29 41 40 51 62 61 49 56
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 27.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 8. 9. 7. 9. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 22. 30. 32. 37. 36. 34. 36. 35.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.3 40.0
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/05/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 4.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 2.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 4.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.74 2.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 43.0% 28.1% 15.3% 9.6% 22.0% 26.4% 30.4%
Logistic: 17.5% 43.7% 28.5% 14.8% 11.1% 34.0% 32.0% 28.4%
Bayesian: 20.7% 66.6% 41.3% 13.2% 3.5% 20.1% 2.5% 0.8%
Consensus: 15.9% 51.1% 32.6% 14.4% 8.1% 25.4% 20.3% 19.9%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/05/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/05/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 48 52 57 62 70 72 77 76 74 76 75
18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 52 57 65 67 72 71 69 71 70
12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 45 50 58 60 65 64 62 64 63
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 40 48 50 55 54 52 54 53
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT