* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRMA AL112017 09/06/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 160 157 152 151 148 142 140 131 125 122 118 117 112
V (KT) LAND 160 157 152 151 148 142 140 131 125 122 118 93 88
V (KT) LGEM 160 153 146 140 136 135 138 135 131 126 116 89 80
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 6 6 6 8 8 8 17 19 25 29
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 -3 1 -3 1 4 5 4 7 4
SHEAR DIR 259 247 270 300 310 282 323 285 265 265 244 225 205
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 158 158 159 164 165 168 167 164 158 148
ADJ. POT. INT. 157 156 158 153 151 150 151 149 151 149 146 138 127
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 -49.9 -50.2 -49.9 -50.1 -49.3 -49.2 -48.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7
TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 12 13 14 13 13 12 11 8 4 3
700-500 MB RH 58 53 51 54 56 53 57 61 64 64 66 62 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 35 33 30 34 34 34 40 41 43 46 48 51 52
850 MB ENV VOR 69 62 51 48 55 45 70 85 114 130 151 127 138
200 MB DIV 31 -10 -40 2 60 14 45 19 92 98 67 72 116
700-850 TADV 7 2 0 0 0 3 0 7 10 24 40 46 49
LAND (KM) 107 61 126 104 117 188 136 106 102 122 6 14 74
LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.2 24.4 26.2 28.1 30.0
LONG(DEG W) 64.7 66.1 67.5 68.9 70.3 72.9 75.3 77.2 78.7 79.7 80.1 80.4 80.5
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 12 10 8 7 8 10 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 17 61 74 84 76 71 60 65 74 62 38 37 30
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 160 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -3. -4. -7. -11. -21. -34. -50. -63. -74. -82. -87. -94.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -2. 0. 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 19.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -1. -1. -2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 12. 15. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -9. -12. -18. -20. -29. -35. -38. -42. -43. -48.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 160. LAT, LON: 18.5 64.7
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.88 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 160.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.18 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 975.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.00 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.7% 2.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/06/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 160 157 152 151 148 142 140 131 125 122 118 93 88
18HR AGO 160 159 154 153 150 144 142 133 127 124 120 95 90
12HR AGO 160 157 156 155 152 146 144 135 129 126 122 97 92
6HR AGO 160 154 151 150 147 141 139 130 124 121 117 92 87
NOW 160 151 145 142 141 135 133 124 118 115 111 86 81
IN 6HR 160 157 148 142 139 134 132 123 117 114 110 85 80
IN 12HR 160 157 152 143 137 133 131 122 116 113 109 84 79