* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KATIA AL132017 09/06/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 74 79 83 87 88 89 81 75 71 67 63 62
V (KT) LAND 65 74 79 83 87 88 89 81 54 36 30 28 27
V (KT) LGEM 65 77 85 90 93 98 97 95 65 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 12 16 12 7 4 5 8 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 -6 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 230 216 232 240 203 250 353 23 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 168 166 166 167 168 168 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 155 155 151 148 147 149 152 153 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 8 7 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 71 70 71 71 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 12 13 12 12 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 10 7 11 17 9 1 -7 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 63 66 46 30 33 45 65 50 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 7 -2 -1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 207 242 260 255 249 222 180 65 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.6 21.3 21.2 21.1 21.1 20.5 19.9 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 95.2 94.9 94.5 94.5 94.5 94.8 94.9 95.8 97.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 1 1 2 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 66 62 52 51 49 53 42 29 39 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 29.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -0. -3. -4.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -11. -16. -16. -17. -18. -18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 9. 14. 18. 22. 23. 24. 16. 10. 6. 2. -2. -3.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.8 95.2
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/06/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 25.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.73 7.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 3.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 6.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 9.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 4.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.52 3.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 1.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 47% is 8.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.6 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 8.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 12.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 15.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 46.8% 64.8% 63.4% 54.3% 44.3% 51.4% 41.0% 59.5%
Logistic: 55.8% 85.1% 80.1% 70.7% 42.6% 65.9% 51.8% 41.8%
Bayesian: 29.8% 13.8% 13.4% 6.4% 5.4% 2.7% 0.3% 0.5%
Consensus: 44.1% 54.6% 52.3% 43.8% 30.8% 40.0% 31.1% 33.9%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/06/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/06/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 74 79 83 87 88 89 81 54 36 30 28 27
18HR AGO 65 64 69 73 77 78 79 71 44 26 20 18 17
12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 69 70 71 63 36 18 DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 59 60 61 53 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT