* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOSE AL122017 09/07/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 80 80 80 78 77 73 70 67 64 61
V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 80 80 80 78 77 73 70 67 64 61
V (KT) LGEM 70 75 79 80 81 81 80 78 74 67 62 59 56
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 10 12 16 15 17 20 26 26 28 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 1 2 8 8 8 6 5 8 4
SHEAR DIR 248 260 246 228 254 285 262 268 278 351 24 26 24
SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 150 152 157 159 155 154 154 154 156 162
ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 150 152 152 155 154 148 146 144 143 145 148
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -52.8 -52.7 -51.9 -51.7 -50.7
200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12
700-500 MB RH 63 63 66 63 64 65 64 64 61 60 58 58 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 18 16 17 17 18 18 18 17 16 15
850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 7 8 15 13 10 8 -2 -29 -57 -72 -45
200 MB DIV 36 56 62 61 56 46 40 36 44 11 -6 -35 -24
700-850 TADV 3 4 0 0 -4 0 0 6 10 9 12 17 26
LAND (KM) 1206 1154 1115 1092 1029 852 751 657 486 396 440 580 710
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.2 16.7 17.8 19.3 20.8 22.3 24.0 26.0
LONG(DEG W) 46.7 48.2 49.7 51.2 52.8 55.4 57.6 59.5 61.2 63.0 64.8 66.7 68.7
STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 12 11 10 11 11 12 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 35 26 28 46 53 64 63 60 53 52 61 48 50
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6.
PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.2 46.7
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/07/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 11.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.72 4.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.61 3.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 4.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 2.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.46 2.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.40 0.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 324.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.62 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 26.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.9 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 19.0% 45.1% 31.0% 19.5% 12.6% 21.7% 18.9% 17.2%
Logistic: 16.3% 35.2% 23.0% 9.9% 7.6% 13.8% 8.3% 3.0%
Bayesian: 16.0% 42.7% 26.7% 8.8% 3.4% 4.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Consensus: 17.1% 41.0% 26.9% 12.7% 7.9% 13.2% 9.2% 6.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/07/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/07/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 77 80 80 80 78 77 73 70 67 64 61
18HR AGO 70 69 72 75 75 75 73 72 68 65 62 59 56
12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 69 69 67 66 62 59 56 53 50
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 60 58 57 53 50 47 44 41
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT