* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KATIA AL132017 09/07/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 82 87 88 93 89 81 74 71 67 64 63
V (KT) LAND 70 77 82 87 88 93 89 57 36 30 28 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 70 80 87 91 94 95 94 60 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 15 15 11 7 10 4 4 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -1 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 211 228 241 210 206 20 35 33 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 167 167 169 169 170 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 148 148 150 154 157 156 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.0 -52.3 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 8 9 6 10 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 69 69 71 71 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 15 16 15 17 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 16 12 2 1 -11 11 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 74 46 28 38 33 32 44 36 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 2 2 4 10 3 2 -2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 237 247 254 244 233 168 43 -86 -224 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.8 20.1 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 94.9 94.8 94.7 94.7 94.8 95.4 96.6 97.6 98.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 2 4 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 64 62 59 58 57 56 35 42 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 17.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. -2. -11. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 18. 23. 19. 11. 4. 1. -3. -6. -7.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.7 94.9
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 19.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.67 5.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 60.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.38 3.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 4.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 8.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 3.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.46 2.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.35 1.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 161.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.8 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 6.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 10.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 12.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 7.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.8 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 39.0% 55.0% 49.4% 44.7% 35.7% 40.3% 37.2% 46.6%
Logistic: 26.8% 68.6% 60.7% 50.8% 35.4% 53.2% 34.2% 18.8%
Bayesian: 18.9% 20.8% 13.2% 12.2% 5.5% 3.2% 0.7% 0.7%
Consensus: 28.2% 48.1% 41.1% 35.9% 25.5% 32.3% 24.0% 22.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/07/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 77 82 87 88 93 89 57 36 30 28 27 27
18HR AGO 70 69 74 79 80 85 81 49 28 22 20 19 19
12HR AGO 70 67 66 71 72 77 73 41 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 66 62 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT