* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KATIA AL132017 09/07/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 75 76 77 79 71 69 70 69 68 67 67
V (KT) LAND 70 72 75 76 77 79 62 39 31 28 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 70 72 74 76 76 75 63 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 17 14 8 10 3 6 5 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 226 249 225 222 224 347 46 72 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 167 167 168 169 170 166 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 151 147 148 150 152 156 156 152 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 7 9 9 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 70 71 69 67 70 70 72 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 14 14 12 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 1 14 11 3 1 -2 10 15 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 41 35 45 57 51 57 47 3 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 3 0 3 6 4 -1 -1 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 268 263 257 233 210 121 -17 -161 -223 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.2 20.9 20.2 19.4 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.6 94.6 94.8 95.0 95.8 96.9 98.0 98.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 3 5 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 58 56 55 57 58 49 9 28 52 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -14. -17. -19. -19. -20. -21. -21.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.6 94.6
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.71 2.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 1.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.46 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 27.8% 17.4% 10.7% 9.7% 16.7% 18.5% 21.1%
Logistic: 6.7% 32.6% 21.6% 11.1% 5.2% 20.5% 11.0% 5.8%
Bayesian: 4.8% 7.8% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 1.1% 1.2% 6.5%
Consensus: 7.1% 22.7% 13.9% 7.4% 5.0% 12.7% 10.2% 11.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/07/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 75 76 77 79 62 39 31 28 27 27 27
18HR AGO 70 69 72 73 74 76 59 36 28 25 24 24 24
12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 68 70 53 30 22 19 18 18 18
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 63 46 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT