* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KATIA AL132017 09/07/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 73 74 76 77 70 68 69 69 68 68 68
V (KT) LAND 70 71 73 74 76 77 46 33 29 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 70 71 72 73 73 73 45 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 16 8 10 5 2 4 12 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 0 0 -3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 243 217 211 223 31 21 56 98 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 168 169 170 168 164 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 150 153 154 160 153 146 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -51.4 -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 6 10 7 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 68 69 71 72 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 17 16 13 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 3 0 0 -1 23 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 33 42 50 45 36 43 39 26 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 3 4 6 6 1 0 -3 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 268 249 230 192 154 35 -133 -232 -283 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.2 21.0 20.5 19.9 19.6 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.8 94.9 95.2 95.5 96.5 98.0 98.9 99.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 4 7 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 59 60 60 60 53 30 36 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -22. -22.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. -0. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.6 94.6
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.81 3.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.59 2.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 3.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.48 1.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 34.7% 22.2% 15.5% 12.8% 21.5% 19.2% 20.3%
Logistic: 8.0% 38.1% 27.2% 15.9% 6.7% 32.7% 13.0% 5.1%
Bayesian: 2.0% 11.5% 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 2.1% 1.1% 8.4%
Consensus: 6.7% 28.1% 17.5% 10.6% 6.6% 18.8% 11.1% 11.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/07/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 73 74 76 77 46 33 29 27 27 27 27
18HR AGO 70 69 71 72 74 75 44 31 27 25 25 25 25
12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 69 70 39 26 22 20 20 20 20
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 63 32 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT