* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KATIA AL132017 09/07/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 77 81 79 70 69 69 68 67 66 66
V (KT) LAND 70 72 74 77 81 67 41 31 28 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 70 71 73 75 76 66 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 8 10 5 3 4 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 215 221 239 302 26 29 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 168 169 170 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 152 151 153 156 159 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 5 8 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 67 69 68 70 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 15 16 9 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 -1 0 -4 0 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 31 29 38 18 47 46 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 5 7 4 3 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 268 245 221 181 141 -14 -186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.4 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.8 95.0 95.3 95.7 97.0 98.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 5 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 59 61 61 59 54 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -8. -19. -21. -23. -23. -24. -25. -25.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 9. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.6 94.6
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.89 4.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.38 1.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.49 2.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 4.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 2.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.48 1.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 150.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 38.5% 25.6% 21.6% 17.1% 24.4% 19.0% 21.0%
Logistic: 13.6% 46.7% 37.9% 31.7% 17.5% 31.4% 9.5% 3.4%
Bayesian: 3.8% 14.0% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 2.9% 0.6% 2.1%
Consensus: 10.0% 33.1% 22.6% 18.2% 11.7% 19.6% 9.7% 8.8%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/07/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/07/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 74 77 81 67 41 31 28 27 27 27 27
18HR AGO 70 69 71 74 78 64 38 28 25 24 24 24 24
12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 73 59 33 23 20 19 19 19 19
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 64 50 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT