* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOSE AL122017 09/08/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 105 109 109 108 106 101 96 95 87 79 77 78 78
V (KT) LAND 105 109 109 108 106 101 96 95 87 79 77 78 78
V (KT) LGEM 105 111 114 112 109 101 95 91 87 82 76 73 68
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 14 16 13 15 14 16 10 15 28 25 23 24 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 4 6 3 5 6 0 6 3 3 3
SHEAR DIR 252 272 269 279 273 262 279 358 22 24 3 360 352
SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 160 161 159 157 156 156 156 156 159 160 162
ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 159 159 154 151 150 149 144 140 137 135 137
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -52.5 -52.4 -51.4 -51.6 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 10 9
700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 58 55 56 56 54 50 51 58 60 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 20 19 20 19 21 20 19 21 24 23
850 MB ENV VOR 7 4 3 4 2 1 0 -27 -52 -71 -65 -58 -37
200 MB DIV 47 56 60 80 69 17 4 5 -14 -44 -31 3 15
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -8 3 6 4 6 9 13 12 7
LAND (KM) 992 878 786 734 707 534 335 290 477 593 726 830 915
LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.6 19.0 20.7 22.8 24.6 26.0 26.9 27.4
LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.8 56.3 57.5 58.8 60.7 62.6 64.5 66.4 67.6 68.0 67.7 66.7
STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 12 11 11 12 13 12 9 6 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 53 61 65 62 68 47 59 50 54 59 49 38 34
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. -3. -10. -16. -22. -27. -30. -35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -8. -5. -4. -3. -0. 3. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -3. -0. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 3. 1. -4. -9. -10. -18. -26. -28. -27. -27.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.5 53.2
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.58 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 61.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.63 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.44 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 583.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.37 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/08/17 00 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/08/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 109 109 108 106 101 96 95 87 79 77 78 78
18HR AGO 105 104 104 103 101 96 91 90 82 74 72 73 73
12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 98 93 88 87 79 71 69 70 70
6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 93 88 83 82 74 66 64 65 65
NOW 105 96 90 87 86 81 76 75 67 59 57 58 58
IN 6HR 105 109 100 94 91 89 84 83 75 67 65 66 66
IN 12HR 105 109 109 100 94 90 85 84 76 68 66 67 67