* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRMA AL112017 09/08/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 140 139 142 146 147 146 142 135 124 110 86 66 55
V (KT) LAND 140 139 142 146 147 146 142 99 52 35 29 28 27
V (KT) LGEM 140 136 135 134 134 134 131 97 50 34 29 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 4 6 9 14 20 31 42 47 46 42
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 -1 -1 1 2 0 7 3 -7 -1 1
SHEAR DIR 249 295 319 300 283 303 268 245 224 204 214 210 217
SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.4 28.7 27.8 26.5 25.2
POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 164 166 167 168 167 168 160 148 135 119 106
ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 152 153 153 151 148 151 142 130 116 100 90
200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -49.7 -49.5 -49.0 -48.6 -48.2 -47.7 -48.5 -49.2
200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.4 2.2 2.2
TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 14 13 13 11 7 2 2 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 55 56 58 58 61 62 61 63 58 52 48 45 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 38 41 41 44 48 50 50 46 32 22 16
850 MB ENV VOR 58 63 82 86 100 105 136 150 129 170 165 129 75
200 MB DIV 38 23 50 50 9 66 75 60 87 128 31 24 -13
700-850 TADV 3 10 4 6 5 9 19 39 73 66 29 -4 0
LAND (KM) 177 138 116 96 64 73 106 -54 -71 -114 -322 -478 -615
LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.6 23.3 24.3 26.0 28.5 30.9 33.0 34.8 36.2
LONG(DEG W) 73.2 74.5 75.7 76.7 77.8 79.4 80.4 80.9 81.5 82.7 84.5 86.0 87.2
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 7 8 11 13 13 12 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 53 67 55 57 49 66 56 74 24 13 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -22. -34. -45. -55. -64. -71. -79.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3.
PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 17. 17. 11. -8. -22. -29.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. 2. 6. 7. 6. 2. -5. -16. -30. -54. -74. -85.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 21.5 73.2
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.94 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.44 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 140.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 807.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.15 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.0% 3.0% 2.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/08/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 139 142 146 147 146 142 99 52 35 29 28 27
18HR AGO 140 139 142 146 147 146 142 99 52 35 29 28 27
12HR AGO 140 137 136 140 141 140 136 93 46 29 23 22 21
6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 131 130 126 83 36 19 DIS DIS DIS
NOW 140 131 125 122 121 120 116 73 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS
IN 6HR 140 139 130 124 121 119 115 72 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS
IN 12HR 140 139 142 133 127 123 119 76 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS