* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KATIA AL132017 09/08/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 87 88 87 85 82 80 79 77 75 74 73
V (KT) LAND 80 84 87 88 73 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 80 84 85 84 72 43 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 4 1 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 241 314 337 330 356 67 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 169 170 170 165 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 152 155 156 158 157 150 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 10 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 68 71 71 71 71 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 13 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 -9 -6 2 16 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 29 35 45 45 40 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 7 1 1 2 1 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 194 154 114 47 -20 -156 -242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.7 20.3 19.5 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.6 96.0 96.5 97.0 98.0 98.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 62 57 49 33 45 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -20. -20.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.4 95.3
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.95 5.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 2.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 4.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 1.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.42 1.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 172.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 2.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.6 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 6.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 18.2% 41.3% 28.5% 22.1% 17.4% 20.7% 17.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 14.3% 40.6% 30.8% 20.8% 19.1% 19.8% 6.8% 2.9%
Bayesian: 16.4% 39.9% 20.5% 6.4% 5.4% 7.5% 3.0% 0.6%
Consensus: 16.3% 40.6% 26.6% 16.4% 14.0% 16.0% 9.1% 1.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/08/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 84 87 88 73 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27
18HR AGO 80 79 82 83 68 38 27 23 22 22 22 22 22
12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 62 32 21 17 16 16 16 16 16
6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 55 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR 80 84 75 69 66 52 41 37 36 36 36 36 36
IN 12HR 80 84 87 78 72 68 57 53 52 52 52 52 52